Climate scepticism – a turning tide or a post-Copenhagen anti-climax?

Last week I posted the results a poll from the States that showed how the number of people who are sceptical about climate science is on the rise. The BBC have carried out a similar survey in the UK, and found similar results:

That’s a pretty stunning change in opinion since November, the result of a couple of stories that have really damaged the reputation of certain scientists. Unfortunately the whole body of evidence seems to get tarred with the same brush, as usual.  I think there’s more in play though – Copenhagen was such a big focus for so many climate change campaigns, it was almost inevitable that there would be a sort of anti-climax to follow, especially after a failed session. People are jaded, the whole climate debate has sort of deflated. We’re also just creeping out of the recession. Obviously the economy has been the top of the agenda recently, and people are going to be wary of anything that looks like it might costs them money. We’ve also just has a freezing spell, so between all those things I’m not losing any sleep over the BBCs findings just yet.

There’s no doubt that the last few months have been disastrous, but I reckon the cynicism won’t last. We’re remarkably fickle that way, and I wouldn’t be surprised if things are right back where they were by the end of the summer. This is an El Nino year after all, so it is likely to be hotter than the last. The Met Office, who correctly predicted that 2009 would be among the top five hottest years since 1850, think 2010 could top 1998 as a new record. I find myself in an awkward position: I still hope we’re all wrong and climate change isn’t happening, but I’m also hoping the Met Office are right about 2010. A record year would certainly move the debate forward, although ironically it would be just as much of an outlier as 1998 is in the overall trend.

If climate change is happening, and I believe it is, then it will become increasingly obvious until even the most blinkered denier has to face it. The worst thing is the delay. Every month of prevaricating and uncertainty makes it less likely that we will be able to prevent the worst of the effects.