Five years ago a whole succession of countries declared net zero targets, to the point that it became something of a standard. Half a decade on, how many of those countries are on track to meet that target?
Fifteen, according to a new study from Allianz. Those 15 countries have already reduced their emissions by a third, which means they would be on track for 2050 if they keep up that pace. A further 20 countries have made good progress, reducing emissions by at least a fifth. They would be able to meet the target if they accelerate.
The country that has made the most progress so far is Luxembourg, followed by Switzerland and then Denmark. The UK is currently eighth, and here’s the full fifteen:
A couple of things to note here: one is that these are mostly higher income countries. There are a number of high performing middle income countries in the second set, and if you measure progress relative to similar countries, you get a rather different leaderboard. That’s for another post, as there are some surprises in that list that deserve more attention.
A second thing is that nobody has got a grip on consumption emissions – those are the ones from imports, and rich countries have offshored their dirtiest industries to other nations. This is something that these nations are going to have to take responsibility for at some point.
In looking at the full data set, which covers 69 countries in total, there’s something for glass half full folks and those of the glass half empty persuasion. On the positive side, over half the countries studied show measurable progress towards net zero, and acoss a variety of contexts. The transition to a low carbon economy is well underway, and anyone saying still saying it’s impossible needs to get out of the way.
On the negative side, some of the biggest players aren’t making sufficient progress. The USA comes in 41st place. China is ranked 48th and India 50th. Any one of these is big enough to derail global emissions for everyone. Even where the transition is observable, is it happening fast enough? And however standard it may have become, is net zero by 2050 too late?
Those are valid questions, but the climate movement needs success stories and shouldn’t be shy to fly the flag for those countries that are delivering on emissions cuts. “The climate challenge still has steep slopes ahead,” says Patrick Hoffman, an economist at Allianz Research, “but we’ve already made significant progress and should not give up halfway. Roughly half of the countries assessed are still on track to play their part in limiting global warming to 2°C. This does not mean the mission is accomplished, but it does mean we are not doomed. These examples should serve as motivation for the laggards, including China and the United States.”
The Earthbound Report 